The End of Oil: The Decline of the Petroleum Economy and the Rise of A New Energy Order by Paul Roberts and Mission Impossible: The Sheikhs, the US and the Future of Iraq by Paul McGeough

Reviewed by Tristan Ewins

>The End of Oil=; a veritable tour de force by Paul Roberts, is an expansive and detailed survey of the looming energy crisis facing not only the US, but the entire world as we continue into the new millennium. This crisis, encompassing the entire hydro-carbon-based fuel economy (coal, oil and to a much lesser extent natural gas) comprises many dimensions, the origins of which are traced exhaustively. (Roberts p 4) These dimensions include depletion, pollution, poverty and global warming.

EMERGING ECONOMIES AND FUTURE ENVIRONMENT CRISES

Considering growing demand in emerging >super-economies= in China and India, and ongoing exponential growth of demand in the West, especially the US B where 5% of the world=s population consume 25% of available energy (p 15) - Roberts begins stating quite bluntly: Athe glorious golden age of oil might be over.@ As Roberts argues: Aoil is finite, [even] although vast reserves of it remain underground.@ (p 12) Oil production could well peak within the next 30-50 years, followed by depletion and a devastating Ainflationary ripple@ (Roberts, p 13)

Furthermore, the rise of Chinas and India, whose populations increasingly aspire to Western standards, has seen a growing turn to coal in the absence of oil, gas or alternative renewable energy sources. If such economies are to >leapfrog= to more sustainable energies, this will require massive subsidies from the West. Expecting the peoples of the Third World to languish in poverty, or limit prosperity to a burgeoning elite, is simply not the answer.

Such considerations raise the spectre of further environmental crises. As Roberts relates, global warming alone raises the danger of Adrought, crop failures, famine, flooding, [desertification] and other calamities. (Roberts, p 116)

Considering the looming crisis, Roberts concludes that the US must cut emissions by 70% by the end of the century, carbon free energy sources must comprise at least a total of one tenth of all sources, and alternative technologies need to be deployed Aon a massive scale@ within 20 years. (Roberts, p 126-127, 190) HISTORY

The historical angles of Roberts= thesis are also well worth exploring. The origins of the current situation are traced in great detail: with the energy economy examined through ancient times, in great detail during the industrial revolution and the rise of the coal economy, and also in further detail with the usurpation by oil of the place once held by coal in this order. Simultaneously, the consequences of the increasing complexity of the energy order are traced: from Athe enormous [economic] web of interdependence@ that arose with the coal energy order, to the legacy of imperialist war and mass transport that arose with the >oil energy revolution=. (pp 30) Throughout, Roberts is nothing if not insightful, convincing and thorough. TECHNOLOGICAL ALTERNATIVES

Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of Roberts= work is his in-depth consideration of alternative energy technologies and their feasibility. One conclusion seems to stand out in unparalleled force through the breadth of the book: in the long run research breakthroughs, energy conservation and the shift to a hydrogen economy hold the key to a sustainable energy order for the new century. Roberts goes into significant technical detail to explain how, Afuel cells mix hydrogen and oxygen to produce electric current.@ (Roberts p 66) Later in the volume, Roberts considers how >bridging= fuels such as natural gas, or >renewables= such as wind or solar power, could be used to create hydrogen as part of a revolutionized hydrogen economy. While energy efficient, however, fuel cells are not yet economically efficient: partly the consequence of a lack of any economies of scale. Nevertheless, Roberts explains how already Daimler Benz had created the >NECAR II=: a Hydrogen Fuel Cell powered automobile, powered by two 25kw fuel cells, and seating six passengers.

Indeed, considering the possibility of hydrogen powered energy plants, continued research, further breakthroughs, massive capital investment and economies of scale an increasingly transformed energy economy (including transport), according to Roberts, is not unimaginable within A5, 10 or 20 years@. (Roberts, p 80) Such an economy could be preceded by a period characterized by >hybrid technology= (eg: gas/electric), and could ultimately follow the German example whereby small household producers (ie: of wind, solar energy) are encourages to plug into energy grids, adding to the total energy pool. (Roberts, p 322) Roberts concludes that the >invisible hand= of the market is simply not enough to facilitate these kind of outcomes and, all positive projections aside, supposes that we might, regardless, need to seriously consider a reduction of production and consumption to allow for the emergence of new technologies, and to ensure a sustainable future. (Roberts, p 212)

IMPERIALISM

Given the vulnerability of the US economy: highly dependent upon oil imports; its dependence on >energy security=, it is not surprising that this weakness has led to a determined and strident Aoil imperialism@. (Roberts, p 109) With successive oil shocks it was probably only the counterbalance provided by the Soviets which prevented a more direct US intervention in the Middle East. Today, with an OPEC beleaguered by instability, a Saudi leadership beset by festering and terroristic fundamentalism, and a Saudi market providing as much as a seventh of total global demand, the spectre of war is as great as ever.

The picture painted by Paul McGeough in his recent contribution to the >Quarterly Essays= series, >Mission Impossible=, is one of a nation rent apart by the recent conflict, mired in intractable instability and facing a grim equation: unpopular and often repressive occupation or brutal civil war. According to McGeough, the main failing of the U.S in this regard has been its total disregard for the traditional power of the Iraqi Sheikhs. While McGeough focuses largely upon the Sunni Sheikhs, equally unsettling for secular forces must be the burgeoning power of Shi=ite clerics: some of whom, as McGeough explains, are also going so far as to encourage insurgency. The US, thus, is Acaught in pincers of its own making@. (McGeough, p7) Mc Geough=s pessimistic analysis of the Iraq situation suggests unfertile and stubborn ground within which democracy could not possibly take root: but rather one in which a more realistic policy would embrace and recognize the reality of hereditary power structures.

The uncomfortable reality, however, is that while the US occupation is undeniably imperialist: at least partly aimed at securing oil supply, perhaps even at undermining OPEC, the alternative of civil war could eventually result in even worse bloodshed or even partition. While the legitimacy of the UN was undermined by its prior support for sanctions, and while the organization has consistently refused to contribute to stabilization forces, it now appears that a UN force, including a significant Arab presence is perhaps the best hope of securing stability, real autonomy as well as a

liberal and pluralist constitution and state apparatus. While much of McGeough=s analysis is incisive, these matters are neglected, as is the ultimate form of any eventual government at least theoretically based upon liberal rights and the sovereignty of the Iraqi people. Is this >mission impossible=?

Regardless, though, the dismal portrait provided of Iraq by McGeough stands as testament to the dangers of Mid-East imperialism. Read together, >The End of Oil= and >Mission Impossible= suggest a West addicted to oil, unwilling to embrace alternatives, and more willing to pursue imperial agendas than to pursue innovation and conservation at home. With instability brewing in Saudi Arabia, and with the diplomatic and human cost of the Iraqi occupation growing by the day, the time has never been better to question our >addiction to oil=.

Tristan Ewins