Collapse of the Neocon Foreign Policy Agenda

by Vera Butler

The fatal blow experienced by the Bush Administration in the mid term election has shifted power relativities in the Middle East.

The influence of the neo-cons on America, foreign and defence has collapsed. Luminaries such as Richard Perle, Kenneth Adelman and David Frum, the President=s speechwriter, argued Iraq would be a Acakewalk@. They now describe the US national security personnel as unprepared, incompetent and dysfunctional. The US leadership is totally rattled by the unexpected resistance and ensuing losses. According to Frum, Athe President said the words but did not absorb the ideas@. All neo-cons now assert in unison that the ultimate responsibility rested with the President. Indeed!

Eliot Cohen, member of the Defense Policy Board, foresaw some@ sort of withdrawal@ that was bound to leave Iraq in Aa pretty ghastly mess@.( Australian,

11-12/11/06).The American debacle in Iraq, the resurgence of the Taliban on the Afghan-Pakistan border, and Israel=s impotence to dislodge Hezbollah from Lebanon, have shown their pretentious self -aggrandisement, and credibility is badly mauled.

Iran, the next item on the neo-con agenda, would prove another costly mistake, considering that Iran possesses long range missiles-3,000 km. That could wreak serious damage on Israel, even with conventional payloads.

Israel=s Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert and his defence minister, Amir Peretz, a Jew from Morocco, have contented themselves with killing 18 Palestinian civilians in an artillery barrage against Gaza.(by 10/11/06 Ed.). Fearing retribution, Olmert was repeating the Israeli mantra about Atechnical errors@, but that kind of excuse is now wearing thin. Israel=s territory is highly vulnerable to intensive conventional bombardment, not to speak of nukes. Pakistan=s nuclear bomb is only under Western control for as long as President Musharraf is in power, and North Korea has already crossed the non-proliferation threshold. Will Iran linger behind?

At present the neo-cons have withdrawn from their multiple advisory roles and consultations with Likud and Israel=s military, who strongly supported the US attack on Iraq. The US public=s backlash has weakened the Presidency and the Republican party.

Gilbert Ashcar asks ¹:

AWhat is US strategy now? All they have is a very short-term strategy.........they want to secure the energy resources of the Middle East. The problem is, what means can they use to accomplish that goal? And I think they are in a state of real disarray about what to do.@

The Pentagon seems to have neither a fighting nor an exit strategy. Neither it nor the neo-cons want to be tarnished with the Bush Administration=s failures.

The rats, some would say, are leaving the sinking ship.......

References. (1)Gilbert Ashcar and Noam Chomsky in APerilous Power@, Hamish Hamilton, p.114. Penguin Books.

Dr Vera Butler is a political scientist educated in Germany and Australia. She is Secretary of the International Studies Association, Melbourne.